25.03.24 - 29.03.24
Results of the previous week
| SPCE+9.63 | XAUUSD +4.07% | TF+2.89% |
RDDT -16.59% | NG -3.94% | VIX -1.39% |
In the short work week, US indices saw mixed performance, consolidating around previously reached highs. There are no serious reasons for them to drop at this stage. The US Federal Reserve once again confirmed that the key interest rate could be cut in 2024. The expectation is that borrowing costs could be cut by 0.75% by the end of the year.
Comments from individual US Federal Reserve officials supported the dollar. In particular, Christopher Waller noted that "there is no need to rush to lower interest rates right now". In this context, the US currency strengthened against most of its major opponents. The dollar received additional support on the back of finalised US GDP data, which came in above expectations (3.4% actual against a forecast of 3.2%).
Brent crude oil prices are back to around $87.00 per barrel. The energy resource is still supported by expectations of OPEC+ production cuts. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, which also favours oil prices.
Key events of the current week
Germany's Manufacturing PMI | DATE 02.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Germany's GDP growth rate has been in negative territory for three quarters, signalling a downturn in the eurozone's largest economy. Moreover, negative growth rates indicate that the region's economy is in recession. Germany is an industrialised economy, so activity in the industrial sector plays an important role in the state of the country's economy. Since August 2022, the manufacturing sector PMI has remained below 50, the dividing line between the growth zone and the decline zone. Global analysts expect that figure to decline. This is bad news for Germany's economy and the euro as a whole. Against this background, EUR/USD is able to continue moving towards the support level of 1.0680. | |||||
The US. Services PMI | DATE 03.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Despite the high key interest rate set by the US Federal Reserve, the economy is showing resilience. The fact that the US economy manages to maintain high enough growth rates allows the Federal Reserve to take its time when it comes to easing its monetary policy, even with inflation still above the Fed's target level. According to the forecasts of global analytical agencies, PMI for the service sector, which plays an important role in the service-oriented US economy, will see only a slight decline, which is not cause for concern. This means that the Fed won't be in a hurry to cut the key interest rate, which is good news for the US dollar.Against this background, the USD/JPY pair may attempt to overcome the resistance level of 152.00. | |||||
The US. Non-farm payrolls | DATE 05.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The state of the labour market remains one of the most important markers of the US economy's health. The unemployment rate remains fairly stable, and the economy continues to create new jobs. With the US Federal Reserve considering starting to ease its monetary policy, the state of the labour market is becoming an important indicator for the timing of the first rate cut. According to global analysts' forecasts, the US economy created slightly fewer jobs in the reporting period than it had a month earlier. This is unfavourable to the dollar. However, the dollar's decline is favourable for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this scenario, XAU/USD may continue to move towards a new all-time high at 2,250.00. | |||||
![Surprises from Central Banks [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_1051589783_6.jpg?itok=1t2cgiFn)
